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Analysts predict Modern Warfare 3 to outsell BF3 by 2:1

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Unless you’ve been living under a rock or you’re not a gamer, you’ll probably know that EA and DICE are to about to release Battlefield 3, and they’re hoping it will be the number one selling game this Christmas, but it’s facing tough opposition from Activision’s Modern Warfare 3.

There’s no doubt that Call Of Duty is the biggest game franchise around at the moment, and Activision plans to release its latest title Modern Warfare 3 next month. Both games, it could be argued, kick off the real holiday shopping season for trigger-happy gamers.

It’s common knowledge that the fourth quarter of every year is the most jam-packed release schedule for new games. It can make or break entire companies and franchises on sales generated during the lucrative Christmas season alone.

Wedbust Securites analyst Michael Pachter estimates that the two games alone will generate in excess of $1.4 billion in sales, equating to a 15% share of all packaged games sales in Q4.

Pachter has done some serious number crunching and reckons that Modern Warfare 3 will sell double the number of units compared to its nearest rival Battlefield 3.  He reckons the latest COD title will shift over 16 million copies compared to just 8 million for BF3.  He thinks that the majority of consumers will choose to pick up both games.

“I’d guess that around half of the console copies of Battlefield 3 will be bought by people who also buy Modern Warfare 3, so around 2 to 3 million will buy both,” said Pachter. “I don’t see much cannibalization of the titles.”

Both EA and Activision have been pushing these huge games with astronomical marketing budgets. Each publisher has spent over $100 million to sell these two titles, including a lavish Call of Duty XP fan event and a towering billboard in Times Square for Battlefield 3. And that doesn’t include the cost of developing Battlefield 3 at DICE and Modern Warfare 3 at Infinity Ward and Sledgehammer Games.

Which title are you going to buy? One or both? Let us know your thoughts on our comments below or via our @Gadget_Helpline Twitter page or Official Facebook group.